Most readers are aware that if you place a lobster in boiling water it will jump out. Yet, if you place it in cold water and increase the heat slowly it will stay in the pot until it eventually dies. If ever there was a living example of how that applies to humanity it is in the current behaviour of welfare to work staff.
Several weeks ago the government announced the closure of Pathways to Work and NDDP contracts and this was soon followed by the awarding of new contracts for the Tory flagship Work Programme. Analysts have long argued that Pathways to work and NDDP were destined for the ‘chop’ so it came as no surprise – yet a sizable number of people working in the industry seemed astonished the axe had fallen.
In a similar vein, the new prime and subcontractors are starting to recruit their staff for the delivery of the new contract. This has already meant that considerable numbers of people have been given redundancy notices and others have been advised they will be subject to TUPE regulations.
I have long argued that the new programme will not require anything like the numbers needed for the previous Flexible New Deal contract. Sadly, my insights are now starting to come to fruition. A number of large organisations have already started the process of ridding themselves of surplus staff, whilst a number have already started the process of TUPE’ing staff over to the new provider.
Inevitably this will mean that sooner or later new providers will ‘fill their books’ and have all the staff they need, leaving many staff who currently work for providers who lost out on the provision out on a limb.
Information coming in already suggests that at least three providers are without any work whatsoever after September, 2011 and this will mean they will have no need for any operational staff after that time. Unfortunately none of these companies have contacted the new providers to begin TUPE negotiations so this will inevitably leave everyone out in the cold and could result in at least 1,000 redundancies.
Overall it is unclear how many people will lose their jobs throughout the sector. Information from companies is deliberately vague and their employees are being fed little to no information. In most instances staff are being advised not to worry because they will be ‘subject to TUPE@ - but existing evidence has already shown this does not automatically mean they will still remain unemployed. Indeed, the available evidence is very much that because the financial model required by DWP was so close to the edge, most providers were forced to produce delivery designs where less staff would be required to achieve more, for less money.
Had the industry stated at the beginning of February that within six months 2 – 3,000 people (and possibly more) would be booted from their jobs there would have been an outcry. Staff would have been writing to the papers and to their MP; Grayling would have faced a picket line when he spoke at the Welfare to Work conference; some organisations might have had to contend with industrial action to protect jobs; MPs would have been asking questions in the House of Commons.
Instead the bosses remained silent – and if they did say anything, they told and continue to tell half-truths., or downright lies. Typical of this is A4e, who recently put staff in areas where they did not win on redundancy notice. The hope is that following TUPE consultation all of these people will move over to new employers – but of course this depends if they have vacancies. Also, some are starting to realise that local delivery managers may not be subject to TUPE and could find themselves out on their ear.
Sadly the people in the sector are almost certainly not going to do anything about it. Like ducks in the pond they are all waiting for the hunter to come and shoot them. Whilst they wait for the slaughter to begin most of these good people are working like Trojans in the hope that above average performance will somehow give them the chance of a new job.
It is very, very sad and people’s lives will be decimated because Duncan Smith and Grayling wanted to make their mark on the industry. Well they have – and as the cull begins, the blood is dripping from their hands.
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