by Alwyn ap Huw
The results of a recent ITV YouGov poll were published on S4C's Y Byd ar Bedwar on Monday. The opinion poll suggests that 67% of Wales will vote yes and 33% will vote no; this seems over optimistic to me; I would have expected the vote to be much, much closer.
Even odder is the poll's suggestion that turn out will be a whopping 56%!
I tend to agree with Jac of the North's assessment of the campaign so far:
"Rugby players say Yes', Business says Yes', 'Man at bus stop says "what referendum?"'
I haven't seen any enthusiasm for either side's argument, the vast majority of my friends and acquaintances either don't know or don't care about the issue.
OK YouGov have done a scientific poll, I have just heard what the people in the shop and the pub have said, but my expectation is that turnout will be about 30% and that the split will be about 51% 49%, but I wouldn't want to commit to which side will win which percentage.
I hope that YouGov is right and that I'm wrong but if I was in charge of either side I would neither rest on my laurels or throw in the towel based on what appears to me to be a rather iffy poll finding.
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