Which way for Labour?

Anyone who has read my comments on here will know I am no fan of Citizen Dave or the Tories but, in fairness it has to be conceded they fought the borough elections well and the resul reflects some disturbing realities for Labour. The biggest of these is that Miliband and the party hierarchy are not getting the message across that Labour offer a real and effective alternative to the 'cut and burn' approach of the Tories.

Secondly, although electors should vote on local issues, we know they use it to endorse, or protest aganst a sitting government. Since last May, Citizen Dave has presented a slick and statesmanlike behaviour as prime minister. Compare this with the meagre attempts by Ed Miliband and there is further cause for concern. No wonder Labour didn't sweep away many vulernable Tory councils.

Nor was last night's substantial vote against AV good for Labour. The party has historically opposed PR and its recent conversion to AV came as a shock to many die-hard lefties. Miliband hung his colours on the "Yes" campaign and with a vote of 2 to 1 against, it brings a further dent to his leadership.

Labour now need to reflect on these results and question why they are not in control in Scotland or Wales. They also need to look at the role of Andy Burnham as campaign manager - a job he handled with anonymity and without passion. Similarly, the autopsy should question the leadership style of Ed Miliband. His "I want to appear as unfazed and likable" approach isn't working and it obviously isn't convincing the electorate.

The Lib Dems are in disarray and it will take them months, perhaps years to recoup after their recent defeats. This isn't the case with the Tories and labour will need to work swiftly if they want to be seen as a credible opposition force.

Not a great night for Labour

If early results prove to be representative of the national trend then tonight may not be as good for Labour as their spokespeople will suggest later today.

Of course it is good that votes have moved from the Lib Dems to Labour. This will come as no surprise whatsoever and should be welcomed. However, Labour’s failure to take control of Holyrood is devastating news and undoubtedly will demand the resignation of the leader of the Scottish labour Party.

In Wales, early signs are that Labour has done well and seems set for overall control of the Principality. Good news for Labour, but even here there has not been a huge swing and it remains touch and go as to whether an overall majority takes place.

In England the Tory vote seems to have largely held, although their Lib Dem partners are taking a severe bruising at the polls. Predictions indicate that if the English results were extrapolated into a General Election result it would mean Labour would have 340 seats (and an overall majority), Conservatives with 264 and the Lib Dems on 21.

All this indicates how Labour are failing to get their argument across effectively. Undoubtedly Lib Dem voters have switched, but most of these tend to be progressives and their discontent was already widely known. Tory voters on the other hand have remained faithful to their party and, in large part their vote has held.

In other words, Labour will need to do far more to convince Tory voters to switch to them when the General Election is called.

I have long argued that the Labour front bench need to up their game and Miliband must be more proactive in attacking Cameron at PMQs. Their rather wimpish style has proven to be ineffective and the vote today will be taken by the Tories as an affirmation that the majority remain content with the way the Tories are handling the economy.

As much as I hate admitting it, they are right. Labour has done too little to bring about a change of hearts and minds. Over the coming months they will need to do far more to bring Tory voters into the fold and guarantee a Labour victory. In particular, they will need to show Tory voters that Labour has an effective economic strategy that can address the deficit and that the party is capable of stabilising the economy and attract new industries and new business to this country.

In other words, before Labour start popping the champagne corks they need to look long and hard at the figures – if they are honest they will admit yesterday’s election has shown there is still a great deal more to do.

By-election dirty tricks: fake gay leaflets delivered in Muslim areas

The Leicester South by-election has turned dirty. A leaflet purporting to be from the Liberal Democrats and featuring a picture of two men kissing has been distributed in an Asian area of the city. The materials, which campaign organisers have confirmed as fake, are clearly an attempt to inflame anti-gay sentiment in the largely Muslim Spinney Hills area.

The leaflet features a version of the party’s equality policies as channelled by the Daily Mail. If the lack of an imprint (text required by electoral law) or contact details doesn’t raise suspicions, the text erroneously describe former Treasury Secretary David Laws and Simon Hughes as front benchers:

“We will force all schools to teach homosexuality as normal … Our front bench team Simon Hughes and David Laws are committed homosexuals, while Nick Clegg was recently voted by readers of Pink Times as the sexiest party leader.”

The operation to whip up anti-gay sentiment echoes a similar incident during the 2004 Leicester South by-election, which was won by now out-of-favour Liberal Democrat Parmjit Singh Gill. Liberal Democrat Party HQ responded by saying:

“Some of this leaflet is completely true and we are very proud of our record in championing gay rights. However, this a fake leaflet maliciously designed to incite hatred. It is disgusting attempt to provoke hate during the last days of a political campaign. It has no place in politics and it has no place in society.”

Now, I may not be a great fan of the Lib Dems, but this leaflet is a pretty tasteless example of how not to run politics. There can be no room in any election for attacks against any minority and the decent-thinking majority of voters should dismiss the contents of this leaflet as being the work of those opposed to true equality in this country.

Why the Coalition is safe - A response to Sunny Hundal

Over the last couple of weeks we have started to see signs that all is not well in the Coalition between the Lib Dems and the Tories – or is it? Nick Clegg says he is angry with David Cameron and the Tories over the issue of social mobility and Chris Huhne has been blowing off steam about the way his Tory friends in the “No to AV” campaign have lied about the referendum.

Even the media have been caught by this apparent ‘new’ hostility between the partners and led Jackie Ashley at the Guardian and Tim Montgomerie at ConHome to speculate there may be an early election. According to Sunny Hundal over at ‘Liberal Conspiracy’ this is highly unlikely but it could have other consequences.

In Hundal's analysis the honeymoon is over and a degree of Coalition trust has been broken. They’ve also called each other ‘liars’ at the highest level – so the bar has been set higher. Also he argues the Tory betrayal over electoral reform may push more die-hard Libdems into the arms of Labour if they keep that promise in their manifesto.

But there isn’t going to be an election and this apparent war between the Lib Dems and the Tories is an entirely cosmetic exercise to make us ‘see’ there are differences between the two parties. Why? Because in case we have all missed it there are local government elections on May 5th and the Lib Dems are scared stiff they are going to get massacred.

This scares the pants off Clegg but doesn’t really affect Citizen Dave because he is hoping the Lib Dems loss could be his gain – and if he can show on May 7th that his party has held its own then it will silence a number of critics. Is this price the Lib Dems will have to pay for lying down with a snake, sooner or later you get bitten.

On top of this the Tories may have signed a Coalition Agreement, but they will still try and wreck anything they don’t like with complete shamelessness. So far this has included education and local cuts. In the future this is also likely to include the NHS (where they will press ahead and ignore the Lib Dems), the environment (despite Chris Huhne’s best efforts) and of course electoral reform.

But have no fear because all these splits will not be enough to break the coalition and on May 7th we can expect Clegg and Cameron to walk hand in hand back into the Cabinet Room to plan more anti-working class measures.

Sunny Hundal believes the Coalition will become “paralysed by civil war.”, he is wrong. Once the AV referendum and the local council elections are over the supposed rifts will suddenly heal and we will once again see the two parties united.

It is easy to see why. The Lib Dems are nothing more than the left wing of the Tory party. They sit comfortably on the same benches and can fairly comfortably nod in agreement over most policies. Essentially there is very little to pick and choose between them. This is the very reason why they must be annihilated on May 5th.
Working people have the chance to voice their full opposition to both the Lib Dems and Tory policies by voting conclusively for Labour candidates. In some wards the incumbent has been an independent, but look carefully at their voting record and in most cases you will see a Tory in disguise. It is time to push them aside and built a firm and effective opposition to this Tory led government. If Labour can dominate local elections this year and the County elections next then it could substantially slow down Tory cuts to local services.

We have a wonderful opportunity to stop this government in its tracks – I hope we use the chance wisely.

Is the Coalition crumbling?

Despite the brave face Clegg is showing, things are not good in the Coalition and each day more rifts are starting to show.

Already in Scotland the leader of the Scottish Lib Dems has argued with the Tories about their policies on justice and their manifesto for the Assembly is clearly at odds with Coalition policy. Take some of their key points:

1. Create conditions for 100,000 new jobs, supported by at least £1.5 billion of investment freed up by reform to Scottish Water.
2. Cut energy bills and boost green economy with new help to pay for insulation and new investment in renewable energy.
3. Give head teachers more power.
4. Give every child a fair start in life with an Early Intervention Revolution
5. Keep higher education free – no fees and no graduate contribution
6. Improve out-of-hours healthcare across Scotland.

Not exactly in-line with the Tory position of cuts, cuts, and more cuts.

Meanwhile back in England, one of Nick Clegg's closest advisers has threatened to quit unless ministers make changes to a proposed overhaul of the NHS. Lib Dem MP Norman Lamb said the plans posed a major "financial risk" to the NHS, and patient care could suffer. He said he would quit as Mr Clegg's chief political adviser unless NHS professionals were "on board".

While supporting the general direction of government proposals, he feared there was "no evidence" how the new GP-led system would operate.
Also speaking on Sunday, Treasury Chief Secretary Danny Alexander acknowledged there were "issues" in the way GP-led commissioning consortia would operate and be regulated.

More recently, an interim report by a five-member banking commission, headed by Sir John Vickers, is expected to recommend a series of measures to protect banks’ key functions at times of crisis. The moves are likely to cost banks an extra £5billion but are set to be supported by George Osborne, the Chancellor. However, the recommendations will be contested by Liberal Democrat cabinet ministers including Vince Cable, the Business Secretary, exposing a clear fault line at the top of the government. Cable has in the past called for the big banks such as HSBC, Barclays and Royal Bank of Scotland to be completely split up into retail and investment arms- and Sir John’s report does not go as far as this. A senior Lib Dem source attempted to distance his party from the findings ahead of today’s publication of the commission’s interim report.

Is this an ideological shift? Hardly – it has more to do with May 5th and the Lib Dems playing a sneaky move to try and distance themselves from the Tories. They know they will be trounced at the election if they continue to suck up to the Tories, so they are trying to show they are independent.

We are unconvinced.

The evidence has shown they are so close to Tory policy it is untrue. They supported the increase in tuition fees; they were all set to endorse changes in the NHS and only bailed out when RCN and the BMA voiced their opposition. In addition they have gone along with Tory plans to scrap EMA and the Flexible Jobs Fund. The Lib Dems have even nodded through substantial changes to welfare reform that will cause unnecessary stress to thousands of sick and disabled people.

The Lib Dems committed political suicide when they formed a coalition with the Tories after May 6th and now they are trying to squirm out of their commitment. Well the electorate may not have long memories, but they have a long enough one to remember all the lies and deceptions Clegg has offered the people over the last year.

On May 5th they will pay the price – and the devastation is likely to be near nuclear. The party leadership will have a hard time justifying their alliance with the Tories once the votes are counted.

Who cares about AV

Now I confess I have a very low boredom threshold. I seldom watch TV and last night, whilst millions enjoyed watching Comic Relief, I read, listened to music, played a little myself and painted. Not that I am anti the idea of giving money to charity, I’m not. I just don’t see why I have to endure the idea of watching people who aren’t funny and endure them making fools of themselves for hours .
I admit it, as the years go on, I have become a grumpy old man. One of my pet hates on the blogosphere at the moment is all the fuss being made about AV. Those who are ‘for’ it keep trying to tell me it will save the planet, restore justice to the oppressed, feed the hungry and bring a new level of democracy to our voting system.

On the other hand, the “no” lobby insist any change from FPTP will bring instability, economic and political chaos and the emergence of Beelzebub and the Hordes of the Night.

Call me cynical, but I don’t think either side is really telling me the way it is. In fact, the way I see it is that if we had been allowed to vote AV in the last election, we would have still had a Tory/ Lib Dem coalition, except the Conservatives would have had a few less seats. As for previous elections, well the evidence from what I have read has tended to lean a little more favourably towards Labour, but not by any huge amount.

So, it seems they want us to vote on an election system where one option (FPTP) will result in the election of Candidate A and the other system (AV) will bring the election of Candidate A. If that’s the case,, why bother to change it?

The whole thing just seems like one big joke – with no real choice being offered in the first place. It’s not even as if the population are chomping at the bit and saying they want change. Sure, the Lib Dems have been spouting on about it for years, but until they came to power, they were all in favour of AV. Since Citizen Dave gave a couple of them seats around the Cabinet table they have watered down their views so much, its hard to spot which one of them isn’t a Tory. Gone are all the ideals of true electoral reform and instead they call for a wishy washy voting system that marginally favours their own politics.

The pro-lobby are probably hoping that holding the referendum on May 5th will help their cause, because people will be voting in local council elections at the same time. But let’s not forget that, on average, only about 40% of voters turn out on Election Day. So, whatever the result, it isn’t going to offer a true representation of the “people’s will” anyway.

Not that this will stop either side when the result is declared. If the “Yes” lobby win they will hail it as a positive result for democracy and if “No’s” succeed, they will argue their campaign has been vindicated – this is even though as many as two-thirds of the electorate may not vote.

The whole thing is boring and let’s faces it, pretty meaningless. The end product will largely be the same whatever the result and will put back the real opportunity for true electoral for a generation. Courtesy of Clegg selling out the people will not have the opportunity to consider the Single Transferrable Vote – the one option that could have changed the face of British politics.As it is, Clegg wants us to keep the same corrupt system, or replace it with a mechanism that will guarantee votes for extreme parties will be far more status than they deserve.

No wonder Cameron gets on so well with him.

So, on referendum day which way will I vote? Well in an ideal world, I wouldn’t, but the facts of the matter are that I will go to the polling station to vote against my local Tory councillors. As a result the election officials will almost certainly give me a voting slip for the referendum. Now, I have never spoiled a ballot paper in my life – it always seems a total waste of time. So, I will have to choose – and neither of them appeal to me.

I guess in the end I will probably go along with AV, but not because I like it. I don’t, but I like FPTP even less. I have spent large chunks of my life calling for electoral reform and have been an advocate of STV for over 40 years. To have it taken away from me by a fellow supporter of the system (Nick Clegg) is an unforgivable act of treachery.

I hope history rewards him appropriately with the argument that he was probably one of the weakest leaders the Liberal/ Social Democratic movement have seen since the days of the Whigs.

If the Lib Dems have any sense of self-respect they will dump him and the other quislings in the Tory Cabinet at the earliest opportunity