We are winning the arguments

(The following blog was first published on the website False Economy on 7th Match. It was written by Nigel Stanley and is published here in full).

Since the election, polling company YouGov has been regularly asking the same questions about the cuts. While they are not quite the questions that we would ask, they are still useful. Asking the same question allows us to see how public opinion moves over time.

The government started off wanting voters to think that the cuts are:

•being implemented in a fair way: "we're all in this together"

•confined to "waste" and back-office services

•the route to economic recovery; and

•inevitable: "we've maxed out the nation's credit card bill and now have to pay it off".

Straight after the election they were winning these arguments. But public opinion has now moved decisively.

Cuts are unfair
This chart shows how many people think the cuts are unfair. Immediately after the election only one in three said they were unfair. Now that has gone to almost two in three. That is a big shift.
Frontline services
YouGov ask whether you are likely to "suffer directly from cuts in spending on public services such as health, education and welfare". This seems a pretty fair definition of frontline services.

As this chart of those saying yes to this question shows, ministers have never won this argument. From the word go around 70 per cent have expected to suffer from the cuts. It's increased a little perhaps, but it has been remarkably consistent.
Bad for the economy
The government message is that cutting public spending gives room to the private sector to drive an export-led recovery.

This chart reports those who say that the cuts are bad for the economy. It was about one in three before the election, but is now over half. It's not quite as dramatic as the shift in fairness, but is still a big shift.
Too deep and too fast
YouGov have not asked questions about whether people think the cuts are inevitable on a consistent basis, but have now started to ask the questions I would have put from the word go.

We can't put them on a chart therefore, but here are the results from their poll of 20/21 February 2011.

A majority think cuts are necessary.

Necessary Unnecessary
55% 33%

But before ministers get too pleased, there is little support for their speed and scale (and we already know people think they are unfair).

Too deep Too shallow About right
50% 6% 27%
Too quickly Too slowly About right
58% 5% 26%

As people start to see the effects of cuts on their local services as council budgets are agreed, it is hard to see these figures moving back to the government.

False Economy or false hope

False Economy, a new group dedicated to fighting the cuts has described itself as:

“False Economy is for everyone concerned about the impact of the government’s spending cuts on their community, their family or their job. It is brought to you by local campaigners, those who rely on or support good public services and those who work to supply them.

False Economy’s supporters want to build the broadest possible movement that can get the government to change direction. Of course the country has been damaged by the recession, but there are alternatives to these deep, rapid cuts. The government’s cuts are unfair, risk the fragile economic recovery and fail to make those who caused the crash pay a proper contribution through the tax system to clearing up the mess they made.

False Economy is for everyone who thinks the coalition is cutting too much, too fast and wants to do something about it”

Fair enough, but I’m not too sure about why they were established, especially as there are already a number of anti-cuts organisations scattered throughout the country. They say they have been set up and organised by a number of notable luminaries, including:

Guy Aitchison: co-editor of the openDemocracy blog and a PhD student at UCL;
Kate Belgrave: Journalist and regular contributor to the blogs Liberal Conspiracy and Hangbitch
Alison Charlton: a Communications. Content Manager at Unison
Nishma Doshi: Economic Justice Campaign Assistant at Friends of the Earth Europe and based in Brussels
Deborah Gray, Mutiny: A small entertainment events organisation that arranges occasional political discussion groups
Sunny Hundal, Liberal Conspiracy
Chaminda Jayanetti: Commissioning editor “The Samosa” and contributor to Liberal Democracy and openDemocracy
Becky Luff: joint editor/ owner along with Deborah Gray of the website “The cuts won’t work”
Adam Ramsay: owner of the website “No Shock Doctrine for Britain”. He is a member of Friends of the Earth and Amnesty International.
Clifford Singer, creative director at Sparkloop graphic design agency and creator of the Other TaxPayer's Alliance website
Nigel Stanley: Head of Campaigns and Communications Department, TUC
Stuart White: Labour party member and activist in “Oxford Save our Services”

Now call me cynical, but this group seems to be little more than a bunch of bloggers. Not that I am against blogging – as you can see, I do it myself. However, why do they feel we need to organise another strand of rebellion?
This is precisely what the left does so well – divide and separate. There are already a number of excellent anti-cuts organisation operating in the UK – Coalition for Resistance with active involvement from the likes of Tony Benn, through to even more left wing groups like Right to Work campaign.

If all they hope to do is create another blog site then fair enough, but if they hope to organise another campaigning movement then I would ask them to seriously to think again.

They say of themselves:

“False Economy is not a top-down national organisation. We recognise that there will be many campaigns against cuts, with some based locally, others that link up people in particular sectors, and others that bring together national organisations. Not all will agree on every aspect or share the same priorities.

But while we welcome and respect this diversity, we believe that we will be more effective when we work together, share information and pool resources.

False Economy will grow and develop as the campaign develops, but we launch with these initial objectives:

• To gather and map information and personal testimony about the cuts and their effects
• To show that there are alternative economic approaches
• To provide resources and tools for campaigners and campaign groups.”
  

It is imperative the left unify under a single flag if we are to stop Cameron’s austerity packages. Division will not solve the problem. At the moment I cannot see how they fill a political void. I ask them to think again and unite under existing banners.