As most readers will know I am something of a stickler for honesty in politics. Politicians who lie shame themselves and the party they represent.
You will also have seen that broadly speaking I like to think myself as fair and non-partisan. I describe myself as politically disenfranchised and I rather like the freedom this brings.
So, yesterday, I started fact checking some of Kemi Badenoch's (the Opposition leader) recent pronouncements on how the Tories would resolve the £23bn defence budget gap by cutting welfare spending. Sadly, the conclusion I came to was that it was fundamentally a pack of lies and distortions.
I attach some of my reasoning, her exact words are in quotes.
1. “A million more people are claiming Universal Credit since last year’s Budget.”
Caused by the "Move to Universal Credit" managed migration scheme, which transitioned claimants from older "legacy benefits" (such as Employment and Support Allowance) to the UC system.
2. “They [Labour] believe the way to end poverty is to give money to people in poverty until they are not in poverty anymore.
Not totally accurate, increases in welfare, tax credits, and targeted social security have not been exclusively funded by income tax rises. While income tax yields are substantial, these expansions are heavily funded through a combination of broader tax increases (such as Employer National Insurance Contributions), frozen personal tax thresholds (fiscal drag), and elevated government borrowing.
3. "'Relative poverty' just tells you what proportion of households earn below 60 per cent of median income.
That is not a measure of poverty at all."
Actually, it is. The UK Median wagae is £39, 039 of which 60% amounts to £23,423. Assuming a 37.5 hour week this equates to £12.01 per hour. The National minimum wage is £12.71.
4. "In Hackney alone, 1,000 families on benefits with 5 or 6 children stand to gain £74 million from the lifting of the two-child benefit cap.
Equates to each family receiving benefit £74,000 assuming it was distributed evenly"
Clearly these statistics are wrong.
5. "Do you know how many people’s thresholds were frozen just to pay for those families in Hackney?
340,000 taxpayers."
In fact, the actual number of taxpayers in Hackney is closer to 148,000 BUT income tax was not the main funding source to finance lifting the two-child cap.
6. "Last year, we saw the fastest increase of children in workless households we’ve ever had."
Actually, the data reveals this was actually in 2023 – 2024 under a Conservative government when it surged by 160,000
7. "There are now more children in the UK growing up in households where no one works than the entire population of Estonia."
True but be should also recognise their population is only 1.35 million so hardly a reasonable statistic.
8. "For all that is going wrong now, and let’s be honest has gone wrong in the past nations can absorb shocks.
The financial crisis, Brexit, Covid."
All 3 were under Tory governments so I fail to see the point.
9. "Unemployment has risen every single month.inder Starmer."
While the overarching trend shows a rise in joblessness from historic lows, there are several instances in the Office for National Statistics (ONS) data where the number of unemployed people and the headline unemployment rate have recorded small dips or remained flat over rolling three-month periods.
10. “Quite simply, our sickness benefits system was not designed to handle the age of diagnosis we now live in. So, we are also going to review which conditions the state treats as disabilities when it comes to benefits.”
How will this work? Who will be affected and how will it be scrutinised? Bearing in mind chronic failings in the existing PIP assessment procedure that remain unresolved this proposal could lead to disturbing diagnostic conclusions
11. "But in an age in which one in four people now self-report as disabled, it’s clear that we are now going to have to draw a line on what health issues the state can support people with.”
In the UK, approximately 5.5 million working-age disabled people (aged 16–64) are in employment. This corresponds to an employment rate of 52.8%
Furthermore, the interim chair of the UK Statistics Authority (UKSA), Penny Young, has written to the Leader of the Opposition, Kemi Badenoch, about a claim in the Conservatives’ Alternative King’s Speech that “for the first time ever, the total welfare bill is now higher than total receipts from income tax”.
In addition, welfare payments have been higher than income tax receipts for many years, and the position is expected to reverse this year.
The UK Statistics Authority also said it was worried that the Conservatives were giving the impression that “welfare” was mainly about sickness and out-of-work benefits, when “approximately 55% of social security expenditure is spent on pensioners”.
A Conservative spokesman has reportedly told the PA News Agency the party acknowledged their claims were inaccurate and planned to correct its document. This did not appear to have happened as of 4pm on (29 June).
No comments:
Post a Comment